Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
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State Rank #2
New Haven Semi-State Rank #1
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 2nd place at State Finals
State Champion 29.5%
Top 5 at State Finals 100.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/22 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31
Team Rating 91 55 65 160 275 202 136 283 119 107
Team Adjusted Rating 55 65 107 120 92 101 113 88 107
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
1  Zoe Duffus 12 17:47 17:51 17:41 18:24 17:32 17:29 18:02 17:57
17  Shelby Christman 12 18:38 18:28 18:37 18:55 19:01 18:48 19:07 18:25 19:10
25  Ashlyn Minton 12 18:47 18:42 18:43 18:55 18:55 18:45 18:39
30  Brooke Hansen 11 18:52 18:16 18:29 18:44 19:12 19:08 18:59
72  Taylor Hansen 9 19:32 18:58 19:05 19:40 19:46 19:27 19:28 20:10 19:29 19:31
90  Madelyn Ruch 11 19:45 20:04 19:34 20:12 20:03 20:02 19:42 19:39 19:44 19:37
344  Paige Hout 10 20:49 20:28 20:47 20:13 21:02 20:33 20:50 21:31 20:47 21:00
520  Marybeth Hall 9 21:21 20:57 21:25 21:00 21:46 21:16 21:13 21:46
594  Hadley Snell 9 21:34 21:35 21:40 21:52 21:09
1,089  Jill Yoder 10 22:46 22:49 22:34 22:39 23:00
1,249  Addison Windsor 9 23:06 23:10 23:02
1,303  Maura Sloffer 9 23:14 23:09 23:32 23:23 22:53




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.8 83 29.5 65.8 4.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.0 39 98.9 1.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 20 100.0 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 19 100.0 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 1.3 41.9 24.6 13.9 7.7 4.9 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Shelby Christman 100% 18.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.1 100.0%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 24.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.8 4.0 100.0%
Brooke Hansen 100% 28.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.6 100.0%
Taylor Hansen 100% 66.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.7%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 83.1 0.0 0.0 56.6%
Paige Hout 100% 169.7 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 1.0 79.0 17.8 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Shelby Christman 100% 5.3 2.4 10.0 14.4 17.4 18.6 14.7 11.2 6.2 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 6.9 0.7 2.8 6.1 9.8 14.6 18.6 17.2 13.6 8.3 4.7 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Brooke Hansen 100% 8.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.0 9.3 14.2 18.5 18.7 14.4 7.7 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Taylor Hansen 100% 16.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.1 6.3 7.6 8.5 8.6 7.8 7.5 6.5 5.8 5.2 4.3 3.6 3.6 2.9 2.7 100.0%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 22.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.4 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.1 100.0%
Paige Hout 100% 76.3 0.0 61.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 1.0 98.5 1.5 100.0%
Shelby Christman 100% 2.5 30.4 41.3 20.1 8.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 3.4 9.3 24.5 38.6 26.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Brooke Hansen 100% 4.1 3.9 13.7 28.8 51.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Taylor Hansen 100% 6.4 0.0 0.5 40.4 21.1 12.7 8.3 5.2 4.3 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 8.7 0.1 8.6 18.0 14.7 11.7 10.5 8.1 7.3 5.3 4.5 3.3 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Paige Hout 100% 32.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 1.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Shelby Christman 2.5 0.0 30.2 41.6 20.0 8.1 0.1
Ashlyn Minton 3.4 9.3 24.1 37.9 28.1 0.6 0.0
Brooke Hansen 4.0 3.9 14.7 28.9 50.6 1.5 0.2 0.1
Taylor Hansen 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 47.7 24.0 11.5 6.4 4.3 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Madelyn Ruch 7.8 0.0 10.9 24.2 17.9 12.8 10.3 7.9 5.9 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Paige Hout 26.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.5 5.1 6.3 7.1